Earlier today, I met the CEO of a real estate firm. Firmly entrenched in Maharashtra, the man travels the the length and breadth of the state often enough to argue he understands how the state functions. A progressive Pune boy, his heart lies with the BJP. Though irreverent in his speech when it comes to most things, he speaks reverentially about Prime Minister Narendra Modi. After a brief rant on how the UPA regime had systematically decimated the economy over the last three years, he spoke of how the mood is changing and people like him are now bullish on the India story. All thanks to Modi, he kept reiterating.
With assembly elections around the corner, I was tempted to ask him which party he thinks will form the next government. He was unambiguous in his response that it will be a Congress-led government and that Prithviraj Chavan will be the next chief minister. On asking him why, his answers were pat.
- Had the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance stuck together, it would have been a cakewalk to power for them. But given the acrimony that exists between the former partners now, they've effectively managed to split the electorate down the middle.
- "The BJP is great at riding into power. But it is awful when it comes to holding on to power" he said. By way of examples, he spoke of conflicting voices from the party on issues, like statehood for Vidharba.
- While the BJP has run a massive campaign across all media on why the electorate ought to vote for them, they haven't projected who the next chief minister will be if they come to power. It would have helped their cause, he argued, if Devendra Fadnavis had been propped. He is seen as clean and competent. Instead, they're banking on Narendra Modi's charisma to do the job. But as history has it, the outcomes of assembly elections are very different from that of the Lok Sabha.
Devendra Fadnavis
- In multi cornered electoral fights, historically, the Congress has always managed to form the government because of its remarkable ability to cobble coalitions.
- Though the Congress is largely seen as incompetent, since the time all alliances have broken down, the party seems the most viable option. This, in large part has to do Prithviraj Chauvan's image as that of a clean, tough guy, who cannot be arm twisted by the Centre to do its bidding.
- More pertinently, albeit belatedly, the media arm of the Congress has started to communicate the kind of work it has managed to accomplish across the state.
- And finally, what makes things real bad for the BJP is the consistent sniping by the Shiv Sena. The barb by Uddhav Thackeray's cousin Raj Thackeray, who is in the fray as well, insinuating Modi is not PM to India, but Gujarat, hurts.
But that's CEO speak. What clinches it for me me though is my go to guy, the local cigarette vendor, who almost always has the last word. A migrant from UP, when I passed him by to pick my stock of smokes for the day, asked me if I'll go to the poll booths on October 15. I said I most certainly will, but am undecided on whom I ought to vote for.
He was unambiguous in his proclamation. For the Lok Sabha, he voted for Modi, and not the BJP. But for the assembly elections, his vote, and that of his contemporaries are going en masse to the Congress. Apparently, the local candidates are known devils and cleaner than the lot fielded by the others.
I've kind of grown to trust him because over the years, he has predicted with unerring precision what levels tax rates on cigarettes will be hiked to, much before the Union Budget announces it.
I understand these are two conversations and there is nothing scientific about it. But as things stand, I'm willing to punt it will be a Congress-led government in Maharashtra, never mind what the surveys say, or all of the chest thumping by the BJP.
UPDATE: SINCE THE ELECTION RESULTS ARE NOW OUT, I KNOW FOR SURE I CAN'T BE A PSEPHOLOGIST :-)
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The barrage of press releases quoting jokers with expectations of #Budget2015 have begun. Spare me. I don't give a rats ass what they think